By Michael Vidikan
Future In Focus
Each year, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited identifies what it sees as the most important trends in technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT). For the most part, Deloitte confines its forecasts in the annual TMT report to the near term, looking forward just 12 to 18 months.
Yet these near-term forecasts focus on areas that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term impacts for companies in TMT and other industries. For this reason, the Technology, Media, & Telecommunications Predictions report serves as a useful leading indicator of changes in tech-dependent industries that may have far-reaching implications.
3 KEY FINDINGS
- Short-form videos will not soon supplant long-form videos—nor will e-readers lead to the death of the printed book.
- Millennials spend more for content than their preference for free content would suggest.
- Every year, more consumers upgrade their smartphones than buy one for the first time.
3 Reasons Why Short-form Video Will Not Surpass Long-Form
Short-form and long-form video have many differences that affect the way people watch them.
Platform. Short-form video is generally watched not on large- screen TV sets, but rather on the small screens of smartphones, tablets, and laptops. Indeed, Deloitte anticipates that less than 5% of short-form viewing will be watched on a TV set.
Viewing time. Since most are available on demand, short- form videos can be watched any time, but are often watched for only a few minutes. By contrast, TV is watched most in the evening, still primarily as scheduled by the network or content provider, and is usually watched for three or four (or more) hours, often in succession.
Genre. The most-watched short-form videos are music videos, while the most-watched long-form TV programming includes sports, drama, reality shows, comedy, and family entertainment.
3 TELECOM TRENDS
In its predictions about telecommunications, the 2015 TMT report forecasts a booming market for smartphone upgrades, a widening connectivity gap, and the rapid growth of contactless mobile payment using smartphones.
Upgrading smartphones 1 billion times over: Already smartphone sales exceed in both volume and revenue the sales of PCs, TVs, tablets, and game consoles combined. And while the smartphone market continues to grow—with the number of smartphone owners projected to jump 22% in 2015—the market for smartphone upgrades is significantly bigger. In fact, Deloitte predicts that 70% of the smartphones sold in 2015 will be bought not by those transitioning to smartphones, but by consumers seeking to upgrade the smartphone they already own.
A widening gap: the growing connectivity chasm: The global number of broadband homes is anticipated to grow modestly in 2015, rising 2% to reach 715 million. The speed of broadband, however, is expected to improve by 15–25%.
Contactless mobile payments to take off: Deloitte foresees booming growth in 2015 in contactless payments made through near-field communication (NFC) mobile phones. In mid-2014, less than 2.5 million NFC-equipped phones—just 0.5% of the 450 million to 500 million such phones—were used at least monthly to make contactless in-store payments at retail outlets. Deloitte predicts an enormous jump to 30 million to 32.5 million monthly users in 2015—5% of the 600 million to 650 million NFC phones.
3 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS
Their high spending on hardware, access, and telecom services is likely to make Millennials choosier and more price-sensitive about spending on content. Yet the continued success of games, books, music, movies, and streaming video show that Millennials are still willing to pay for media content tailored specifically to them.
Rather than attempting to insert advertising adjacent to short- form videos, more companies may want to explore creating their own short videos. Short-form videos often serve as excellent vehicles for advertising or self-promotion in themselves. Music videos promote the featured musicians and their music. Videos of gameplay advertise the games. Disney even operates a digital channel that promotes its merchandise by posting about 50 videos each month showing kids opening and playing with their toys.
Concert venues and movie theaters may want to invest in upgrading Internet access, as many college and professional sports venues have done, in order to forestall the half-time exits of Millennials hungry for non-stop access to the Internet and social media.
Michael Vidikan is the CEO of Future in Focus, a strategic foresight and consulting firm that helps companies see years or even decades into the future to make better long-term decisions today.
Vidikan is a graduate of the MBA program at The George Washington University, where he also received his undergraduate degree in business and psychology. When he’s not focusing on the future, you can find him experimenting in the kitchen, testing out the latest interactive gaming technologies, or volunteering in his community and raising money for Movember, a global organization committed to changing the face of men’s health.
About Future in Focus: Future in Focus is a strategic foresight and consulting firm that offers custom and subscription-based research to help companies see years or even decades into the future to make better long-term decisions today. Founded in 2014 by futurist Michael Vidikan, the firm continues the work previously done by Social Technologies, which was founded in 2000 by futurist Tom Conger. It was sold in 2009 to Innovaro, a company focused on software and innovation solutions. Today, there are more than 1,400 briefs in Vidikan’s database that focus on the future of everything, from cyber-security and home furnishings to robotics and food preferences, including demographic and generational trends, country and regional profiles around the world, and emerging business models. Learn more about subscribing here.
For more information: Contact Vidikan at firstname.lastname@example.org • Cell: 202-669-8055.