• August 2014

The Future of Work

What will “work” look like in 2020? What jobs will your kids have? Are they learning what they’ll need to know in school? And what will be the future of entrepreneurship? These are some of the questions we tackle in the August 2014 issue of BeInkandescent.com.

For insights, we turn to two of our favorite futurists—Dr. Andy Hines and Chris Carbone. We all worked together years ago when they headed up the DC-based futurist think tank Social Technologies. Today, Hines runs the Futures Studies program at the University of Houston, and Carbone works for an international futurist firm.

What does a futurist do, exactly? “My job as a futurist is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything I can get my hands on,” Carbone explains. “As a result, futurists are able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.”

Pretty cool, right? We think so, and so do our columnists, who in this issue share insights into the future of their industries—including Hiring expert Barbara Mitchell, Wealth columnist CFP Rita Cheng, and our Public Speaking specialists Hilary Blair and Robin Miller. And if you’re a business owner who wonders how technology is changing the advertising industry, turn to the Futurist column, in which Derek Woodgate illuminates the future of advertising.

Plus, in our Self-Help column you’ll find the latest research on the health benefits of coffee. Good news, and something to fuel us as we ponder the future of work.

Also in this issue, we are pleased to launch three new columns:

  • Intuition Rules features insights on how you can use your innate intuition to help guide your choices in business, and in your life. In this month’s spotlight, our managing editor, Kathleen McCarthy, interviews intuitive guide Eliel Fionn.

We leave you with this parting thought from Abraham Lincoln, who said: “The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time.”

Here’s to your incredible, indelible, Inkandescent success! — Hope Katz Gibbs, publisher • Illustration by Michael Gibbs

Andy Hines and Chris Carbone on the Future of Work

COVER STORY: AUGUST 2014

What Will Work Look Like in 2020 and Beyond?

Futurists Andy Hines and Chris Carbone Share Insights

By Hope Katz Gibbs
Publisher, Be Inkandescent

What might surprise us about the nature of work in the future?

According to Dr. Andy Hines, a futurist and professor at the University of Houston who heads up the country’s largest foresight program, several early signs indicate trends that could result in dramatic changes in the future.

“As professional futurists, my colleagues and I are continually scanning the external environment for signals of change,” explains Hines, who has pulled together a dozen of these signals, which may not yet be on the radar screens of many organizations.

The dozen surprises listed here have been emerging piecemeal—they appear in small pockets and are not widespread. Hines believes “things will get really interesting in the decade ahead, however, as most of them will have a reinforcing influence on one another, which could result in a fairly sweeping transformation.”

How can you prepare for what’s on the horizon?

“By studying the changes that are occurring now and trying to understand their significance for the future, organizations will be able to spot opportunities to proactively shape their future,” he insists. “These trends emerge primarily from issues affecting knowledge work, and will most likely appear first in affluent nations.”

Hines’ dozen surprises for the future are listed below. Scroll down to discover his big ideas. And for more details, click here to download his comprehensive analysis of the future of work.

Given all these changes, what jobs will you—and your kids—have in 2020 and beyond? That’s the million-dollar question that Futurist Chris Carbone helps us understand.

Like Hines, Carbone’s job as a futurist is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything he can get his hands on. As a result, he is able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.

Indeed, the future of work is one of the hottest trends that he is studying.

“Like the economy, it is one of the big mysteries that keeps us all up at night,” Carbone says. “And research shows work will look much different in 2020, whether judged by the types of computing devices we use on the job, where we work, or the way we collaborate with our coworkers.”

Following are two trends that Carbone is tracking.

  • For starters, the types of jobs that people hold will change. “There will be careers that don’t even exist today—just as there were no ‘social media strategists’ or ‘mobile app developers’ a few short years ago,” Carbone observes.
  • That said, a great many of the jobs that will be held in 2020 are here already. “There’s a simple way to learn what they are by tapping into the wonderful world of government statistics,” he says. “Now this may not sound like the most thrilling thing to do on a Friday night, and to save you the trouble, we’ve combed through the most recent employment projections.” The projections for 2010-2020 are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Here’s why the BLS does what it does. The BLS creates these long-term projections to help educators, counselors, and policymakers plan for the needs of the future workforce.

“These projections can also offer insight to parents, students, career-changers, and anyone who—like me,” Carbone says—knows that “there’s a pretty solid chance that come 2020:

  1. They’re not going to be independently wealthy, and
  2. They’re still going to want and need to be working.”

So what can we say about the careers of 2020 by looking at the most recent BLS data? Click here to find out.

Andy Hines: A Dozen Surprises About the Future of Work

  1. Hey, that’s cheating. Augmented or enhanced human characteristics will present challenges for organizations and individual talent.
  2. Emerging markets rewrite the rules of work and work culture. As emerging markets improve their positions, they will influence the culture of work.
  3. Intelligence shows up in unusual places. Information technology (IT) will create new forms of intelligence that will migrate into infrastructure, devices—or persons (wearables or implants), or all of the above.
  4. Work now, get paid later … maybe. Do the work and get paid according to what the customer thinks it is worth (e.g., the Radiohead model, named after the English alternative rock band that released a digital form of one of its albums for free and asked customers to pay what they thought it was worth).
  5. Time- or project-based employment contracts begin to mainstream. While currently in the domain of the elite athletes and actors, this will become a mainstream practice.
  6. Fairness becomes impossible. The need to customize and personalize to attract talent will make across-the-board, same-for-everyone types of policies increasingly untenable.
  7. Workers prefer working to live instead of living to work. Work will be a shrinking portion of time—and even incomes—in affluent nations.
  8. Work increasingly becomes a thing you do instead of a place you go. Work will be increasingly thought of as a process that happens wherever and whenever.
  9. Employer-provided training disappears. As organizations become increasingly reluctant to invest in training, new ways will be devised for organizations to acquire the talent and skills they need.
  10. “Nearsourcing” will become preferable to outsourcing. Growing shipping costs and the complexity of global supply chains will lead to a preference for local and in-house talent.
  11. Work in the happiness society changes metrics. Work as a source of fulfillment will influence a shift in measures from GDP (gross domestic product) to GDH (gross domestic happiness).
  12. Meet the new boss. As Boomers approach retirement, GenX and GenY—digital natives with different expectations, goals, and work styles—will reshape leadership and work.

Don’t stop now! Click here to read Carbone’s insights into Jobs to 2020 and Beyond.

Futurist Chris Carbone Provides Insight Into Jobs: 2020 and Beyond

By Chris Carbone
Futurist, Director
Innovaro, Inc.

Where will you work in 2020? That’s the million-dollar question. In fact, the future of work is one of the hottest trends I am studying. Like the economy, it is one of the big mysteries that keeps us all up at night.

As a futurist, my job is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything I can get my hands on. The goal is to determine what the world might look like five, 10, and 20 years down the pike, and by tracking what’s going on today, my colleagues and I are able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.

In fact, my research shows that work will look much different in 2020, whether judged by the types of computing devices we use on the job, where we work, or the way we collaborate with our coworkers. Following are some of the trends that I am seeing.

For starters, the types of jobs that people hold will change.

Indeed, there will be careers that don’t even exist today—just as there were no “social media strategists” or “mobile app developers” a few short years ago.

That said, a great many of the jobs that will be held in 2020 are here today—and there’s a simple way to learn what they are by tapping into the wonderful world of government statistics.

Now, this may not sound like the most thrilling thing to do on a Friday night, and to save you the trouble, we’ve combed through the most recent employment projections for 2010-2020 developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The BLS creates these long-term projections to help educators, counselors, and policymakers plan for the needs of the future workforce. These projections can also offer insight to parents, students, career-changers, and anyone who—like me—knows that there’s a pretty solid chance that come 2020, they’re 1) not going to be independently wealthy, and 2) are still going to want and need to be working.

So what can we say about the careers of 2020 by looking at the most recent BLS data?

1. Let’s start with the good news: There will be millions of jobs to be had.

The BLS projects that there will be nearly 55 million job openings during the decade from 2010-2020. About 34 million of these jobs will come from the need to replace workers who retire or leave their job for another job or to return to school, etc., and nearly 21 million will come from new jobs that will be created during the decade.

(These projections assume a “full employment” economy in 2020 with unemployment of 5.2 percent, a welcome change from the current 6.1 percent in June, and a big improvement over the 10.0 percent rate in October 2009, according to the BLS.)

2. To find the jobs, follow our changing society, and the economy.

The jobs that will be plentiful in 2020 reflect some of the basic changes underway in US society and the economy, such as the aging of the population (especially the huge wave of Baby Boomers), a continued shift toward services and knowledge work, the increasingly important role that science and technology play in our lives, and the continued recovery of construction and other sectors that were hit hard by the Great Recession.

Research from the business community suggests a similar future. Researchers at McKinsey & Company, for example, forecast that six sectors will account for up to 85 percent of the new jobs created through 2020. They are health care, business services, leisure and hospitality, construction, retail, and certain types of manufacturing jobs.

3. Business jobs will remain attractive.

There will be some 5.1 million job openings in management, business, and finance through 2020 due to growth and replacement needs. Think of jobs such as company executives and managers, operations and HR managers, financial analysts, accountants and auditors, and advertising positions.

As a whole, this class of jobs will grow more slowly (11.5%) than total employment (14.3%) between 2010-2020, but with the median annual salaries for many of these jobs ranging into the $70,000s, $80,000s, and well beyond into six figures, this will continue to be an attractive category of jobs.

Some jobs will grow much faster than the management, business, and finance category’s 11.5 percent. This includes market research analysts and marketing specialists (42%), personal financial advisors (32%), social service managers (27%), and managers of health services (22%).

One real surprise in the data is that the number of meeting, convention, and event planners was projected to rise by nearly 44 percent by 2020, resulting in 31,000 new jobs and 45,000 total job openings.

While not huge numbers, the growth rate makes it the fastest growing job in management, business, and finance in the coming years. Clearly, face-to-face still matters, even as social networking and our “digital lives” become more important.

4. Find your future with STEM jobs (science, technology, engineering, and math).

Science and technology will continue to have dramatic impacts on our economy and society in the coming decade—and as we increasingly rely more on complex systems, and digital and genetic technologies of all types, the prospect for computer, engineering, and science jobs will be strong.

This class of jobs will grow by 17 percent through 2020, faster than the job market overall (14.3%). There will be 2.8 million job openings in this category due to growth and replacement needs through 2020. This will include many high-paying positions such as software developers and programmers ($85K median wage), statisticians ($73K median wage), chemical engineers ($90K median wage), psychologists ($68K median wage), and urban planners ($63K median wage).

Which occupation in this category will offer the most jobs? Given the importance of information technology in our work and personal lives, it should come as no surprise that it’s software developers and programmers.

There will be some 494,000 job openings for software developers and programmers through 2020 (about 314,000 new jobs and 180,000 jobs from replacement needs). For perspective, consider how this compares to one of the classic, go-to professional jobs of the past couple decades: attorneys.

In raw numbers, there will be more than two times as many job openings for software developers and programmers (494,000) as there are for lawyers (212,000) this decade. And in terms of percent growth, the number of new jobs for lawyers will grow more slowly than total employment (10% vs. 14.3%, respectively), while the number of computer jobs grows by 22 percent through 2020.

Which of the STEM jobs does the BLS see as growing the fastest this decade? The number of positions for biomedical engineers will rise from 15,700 to 25,400 by between 2010 and 2020, a jump of 62 percent. While not a huge raw number, the percent change is telling. For example, consider that the growth rate for chemical engineers will only be 6 percent during these same years. If I were a young student with a general interest in a STEM job, I know one career that I’d be looking into seriously. …

5. Teach and train the next generation.

There will be some 3.4 million education, training, and library job openings due to growth and replacement through 2020. This will be driven by a variety of trends including the maturing of the 80+ million Millennials, the largest living American generation. As more of the Millennials enter their 30s and start having children, it will drive the need for teachers and other education-related positions in the next decade and beyond. As a category, these jobs have a mean annual wage of $46,000. But remember, this means that half of the people with these jobs earn more than $46,000 and half earn less, and some positions in teacher-friendly states can lead to total compensation of salary and benefits close to $100,000.

6. Health-and-wellness jobs will boom.

Driven by trends such as the aging of the population and the increasing focus people are putting on health and wellness, there will be 3.6 million job openings for healthcare practitioners and technicians due to growth and replacement through 2020. These occupations include doctors and surgeons ($166K median salary), pharmacists ($112K median), physical therapists ($76K median), radiology techs ($54K), athletic trainers ($42K median), and even veterinarians ($82K median).

The clear standout opportunity in this area is for registered nurses (RNs), which should have the most job growth of all occupations through 2020, with a projected 712,000 new jobs. Between these new positions, and ones opening up due to replacement needs, there will be 1.2 million total job openings for RNs through 2020. And nursing is increasingly becoming a job for both men and women. In 2011, men made up about 6 percent of all nurses, but it’s estimated that by 2020 they could make up 25 percent of all nurses in the United States.

There will also be some 2 million more jobs in healthcare support careers. These positions require lower levels of education than the practitioner and technician careers and include jobs like orderlies in hospitals and physical therapy assistants. Of these healthcare support careers, the fastest growing will be for home health aides. The number of home health aides will explode by some 70 percent over the next decade, leading to some 706,000 new jobs. This is evidence of the deep desire of Americans to “age in place” and remain independent and at home for as long as possible.

What does all of this information mean for your future?

The analysis above is just a quick overview of some of the occupations that should yield solid opportunities for students, young professionals, and career-changers in coming years.

If you’re a parent, projections like this can help you as you guide your children to think about their education and their future. Let them explore, try lots of things, but seed your conversations with them with projections like these, and bring a dose of reality to the discussion by showing them which occupations will be abundant and which may be more difficult to break into.

If their passion is in a sector or occupation that isn’t expected to see rapid job growth in the next decade, that’s okay. Encourage them to pursue their goals, but with data like this they can do it from a more informed perspective. For example, a teen interested in healthcare who is strong in the sciences will benefit from knowing that there are going to be roughly 35 times as many job openings for registered nurses as for veterinarians through 2020.

Encourage them to be a vet if that’s what they really want, and armed with this kind of data they’ll know the kind of competition they’re up against, which can be a strong motivator and spur them on to achieve this goal.

What are other ways this information will be useful for yourself and your kids?

  • Look for occupations that are going to add a lot of jobs in terms of raw numbers. This ensures you’re focused on big targets.
  • Look for areas that have high growth-rates. Focusing in on these fast-growing industries and occupations can help future-proof your (or your children’s) career and keep it in step with the changing 21st century economy.
  • Triangulate. Look at the raw numbers and growth rates, but don’t forget the personal angle. If you’re thinking of a career change, where does your passion lie … and what do you enjoy doing? Use the data to help guide and explore, but don’t force yourself (or your kids) into a career just because there are a lot of jobs to be had.
  • Explore the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) yourself, and learn about job prospects, earnings, and what people actually do day-to-day in hundreds of careers. The 2014-15 edition was released in January 2014 and can be found at http://www.bls.gov/ooh.

Sources: C. Brett Lockard and Michael Wolf, “Occupational Employment Projections to 2020,” Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, www.bls.gov; Table 1.7, Employment Projections Program, US Department of Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Male Nursing Statistics; “An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future,” McKinsey & Co.


About Chris Carbone

Chris Carbone has worked in trend and foresight consulting for more than a decade, serving clients from Fortune 500 corporations and foreign and US government agencies. During this time he has researched and authored dozens of reports and scenarios on wide-ranging topics, from the future of leisure and play, to the future of urban mobility, to emerging consumer lifestyles in China.

He has been quoted in numerous publications including The Miami Herald, The Washington Post Express, and Fast Company, and appeared on “The CBS Early Show.” He currently oversees Innovaro’s two multi-client research projects—Global Lifestyles and Technology Foresight—and contributes to the firm’s custom engagements.

Carbone has an MBA from Johns Hopkins University with a concentration in marketing, and received his undergraduate degree in history from Gettysburg College. For more information, contact him by email.

Don’t wait for someone else to lead you to your right life; that privilege—and responsibility—is yours alone.”

– Martha Beck

Do not say, ‘why were the former days better than these,’ for it is not from wisdom that you ask this.”

– Ecclesiastes, 7:10

Never cut what you can untie.”

– Joseph Joubert

When you are asked if you can do a job, tell ‘em, ‘Certainly I can!’ Then get busy and find out how to do it.”

– Theodore Roosevelt

If you would create something,
 you must be something.”

– Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

I always maintained that the greatest obstacle in life isn’t danger, it’s boredom. The battle against it is responsible for most of the events in the world — good or ill.”

– Dr. Evelyn Vogel, Dexter

Outside of a dog, a book is man’s best friend. Inside of a dog it’s too dark to read.”

– Groucho Marx

It is easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them.”

– Alfred Adler

I will pay more for the ability to deal with people than any other ability under the sun.”

– John D. Rockefeller

If you think you are too small to make a difference, try going to sleep with a mosquito in your room.”

– A wisdomism

Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”

– T.S. Eliot

The goal of Life is to make your heartbeat match the beat of the universe, to match your nature with nature.”

– Joseph Cambell

If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader.”

– John Quincy Adams

There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction.”

– JFK

There is little success where there is little laughter.”

– Andrew Carnegie

We must be willing to let go of the life we have planned so as to have the life that is waiting for us.”

– Joseph Campbell

Do you believe it is important to give back some portion of your wealth to support charitable causes?”

– Steven Schussler

My task is really not to change myself but to become familiar with who I am.”

– Maureen Cook

The only dream worth having is to live while you’re alive and die only when you’re dead.”

– Arundhati Roy

Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid.”

– Basil King

Hope sees the invisible, feels the intangible, and achieves the impossible.”

– Helen Keller

A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.”

– Bob Dylan

What is the point of having free will if one cannot occasionally spit in the eye of destiny?”

– Jim Butcher, White Night

At the center of your being you have the answer; you know who you are and you know what you want.”

– Lao Tzu

Nurture your mind with great thoughts; to believe in the heroic makes heroes.”

– Benjamin Disraeli

‎Excellence is to do a common thing in an uncommon way.”

– Booker T. Washington

Nobody talks about entrepreneurship as survival, but that’s exactly what nurtures creative thinking.”

– Anita Roddick, founder, The Body Shop

That man is richest whose pleasures are the cheapest.”

– Henry David Thoreau

The only way to compel men to speak good of us is to do it.”

– Voltaire

Are you willing to help other people succeed even when it’s not a requirement of your job to be of assistance?”

– Steven Schussler

Ripeness is all.”

– William Shakespeare

Part of your destiny is to live in the zone of maximum satisfaction.”

– Martha Beck

The young man knows the rules, but the old man knows the exceptions.”

– Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., U.S. Supreme Court justice

Success is about finding a livelihood that brings joy, self-sufficiency, and a sense of contributing.”

– Anita Roddick

If you do not tell the truth about yourself
you cannot tell it about other people.”

– Virginia Woolf

He who wants to tear down a house must be prepared to rebuild it.”

– African Proverb

You must have chaos within you, to create a dancing star.”

– Frederic Nietzsche

The person who makes a success of living is the one who see his goal steadily and aims for it unswervingly. That is dedication.”

– Cecil B. DeMille

Acknowledging the good that you already have in your life is the foundation for all abundance.”

– Eckhart Tolle

With ordinary talents and extraordinary perseverance, all things are attainable.”

– Sir Thomas Fowell Buxton

Do you have the desire to create something new; the strength of conviction to believe your creation will be successful, and the reservoir of energy necessary to thrust it into the marketplace?”

– Steven Schussler

Nothing is a mistake. There’s no win and no fail. There’s only make.”

– Corita Kent

The awakening to the mystery of life is a revolutionary event; in it an old world is destroyed so that a new and better one may take its place.”

– J.J. Van Der Leeuw, The Conquest of Illusion

I can’t go back to yesterday—because I was a different person then.”

– Lewis Carroll

Always look at what you have left. Never look at what you have lost.”

– Robert H. Schuller

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

– Charles Darwin

Remove those ‘I want you to like me’ stickers from your forehead
and, instead, place them where they truly will do the most good—on your mirror.”

– Susan Jeffers

If my mind can conceive it, and my heart can believe it, I know I can achieve it.”

– Jesse Jackson

There’s nowhere you can be that isn’t where you’re meant to be…”

– John Lennon

Treat the attainment of happiness in the same way an entrepreneur would approach building a business — with a vision, plan, goals, and a systematic approach.”

– Ted Leonsis

Books

What Do Consumers Want? Futurist Andy Hines Explains in "ConsumerShift"

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The Future of Advertising: Derek Woodgate on Disruptions and Opportunities

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Publisher
Hope Katz Gibbs
Art Director
Michael Gibbs Illustration
Managing Editor
Kathleen McCarthy
Associate Editor
Cheryl Moore
Website developer
Max Kukoy
Staff Photographer
Anna Paige Gibbs
Editorial Interns
Meet our 2014 team

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PR Rules

"PR Rules" Is Available on Amazon.com on Aug. 18, 2014

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Public Speaking

Jetpacks and Communicators: The Future of Public Speaking

The futuristic gadgets and modes of communication that we saw decades ago on “Star Trek” and “The Jetsons” are now here! What does that mean for public speakers?

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Inkandescent Radio

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If you missed our feature in the July 2014 issue of BeInkandescent.com, be sure to check out our podcast with Montpelier’s Kat Imhoff, who shares fascinating about this founding couple James & Dolley Madison!

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Retirement

When an IRA Is Not a Retirement Account: CFP® Bryan Beatty Explains

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Self-Help

The Coffee Question—Is It Good for You, or Not?

Anyone who starts each day with a jolt from their morning joe probably hopes that science will eventually prove they aren’t killing themselves as they pour that second cup.

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Speakers Bureau

Tara Sheahan Helps Us Tap Into Our Leadership Mojo

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Inkandescent TV

The Future of Retirement: Is There a Dark Side?

Depression, drug addiction, and in some cases, suicide, are the result of retirement. What can be done to turn the tide? Egan, Berger & Weiner’s Howard Pressman offers insights.

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Wealth

What Do Robo-Advisors Mean for the Future of Wealth Management?

“Electric communication will never be a substitute for the face of someone who with their soul encourages another person to be brave and true,” said Charles Dickens. That concept is still relevant today in the financial advisory profession, which is experiencing a dramatic transformation.

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To learn more about becoming a client of Inkandescent Public Relations, or becoming a Be Inkandescent Magazine columnist. send an email to publisher and founder Hope Katz Gibbs at hope@inkandescentpr.com.

Here’s to your incredible, indelible, Inkandescent success!